Daily Crude Oil Analysis Report

WTI Crude Oil Daily Analysis - August 18, 2025

Market Overview

• Daily Bias: Bearish

• Overall Bias: Bearish

• Overall Trend: Bearish

• Overnight Trend: Bearish

• Value Area : N/A

• Volume: Light

• Volatility: Low

• Key Resistance: 62.48

• Key Support: 61.68

Fundamental and Technical Analysis

WTI Crude Oil futures opened the week with a notable bearish gap, declining from Friday’s close of 63.14 to Sunday evening’s open at 62.19, driven by the rollover from the September (U) to the October (V) futures contract. This 0.95 gap-down, combined with the absence of significant bullish fundamental catalysts, reinforces the prevailing bearish trend. Technical analysis highlights a key resistance at 62.48, where a downward-sloping trendline converges with a pivot level, likely capping any near-term upside. The light volume environment further suggests limited buying pressure, supporting the potential for continued downside momentum toward key support at 61.68.

Key Events

• 7:00 AM MST: NAHB Housing Market Index

Trading Opportunities

Primary Trade (Bearish)

• Strategy: Short Entry at 62.00

• Target 1: 61.68

• Target 2: 61.07

• Rationale: The bearish gap and alignment of resistance at 62.48, coupled with the absence of

bullish catalysts, favor a short position targeting established support levels. The light volume

environment enhances the likelihood of sustained downward pressure.

Alternative Trade (Bullish)

• Strategy: Long Entry at 62.50

• Target 1: 63.08

• Target 2: 63.88

• Rationale: A breakout above the 62.48 resistance could signal a short-term reversal, particularly if supported by unexpected positive data from the NAHB Housing Market Index. However, this scenario is less probable given the dominant bearish trend and lack of fundamental support.

Risk Management

• Volatility Considerations: Low volatility is expected to persist, but the 7:00 AM MST NAHB

Housing Market Index release may introduce modest price fluctuations. Traders should remain

alert for event-driven volatility.

• Stop-Loss: For the short trade, place a stop-loss above 62.48 to protect against a potential

breakout. For the long trade, consider a stop-loss below 62.00 to mitigate downside risk.

• Position Sizing: Given the light volume and bearish market structure, maintain conservative

position sizes to manage risk effectively.

Conclusion

The WTI Crude Oil futures market opened with a bearish tone, driven by the contract rollover and a lack of bullish fundamental drivers. The technical setup, with resistance at 62.48 and light volume, supports a continuation of the downward trend toward 61.68 and potentially 61.07. Traders should monitor the 7:00 AM MST NAHB Housing Market Index for potential volatility, though its impact is likely to be limited. A disciplined approach with well-defined entry, exit, and risk management parameters is critical for navigating today’s market conditions.